On March 9, ARSA released its 2022 Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast, prepared by Oliver Wyman. The report’s findings were presented by Anthony DiNota, Oliver Wyman CAVOK senior vice president and general manager, to participants in the Legislative Day portion of the association’s Annual Conference.
The report presents a thorough picture of the active recovery of the commercial aviation market from the impacts of the global pandemic. The global in-service fleet had returned to 93 percent of its pre-COVID size by Jan. 1, 2022, with demand and overall utilization trending towards recovery. The air transport maintenance market represented $78.6 billion in global economic activity and is forecast to reach $118 billion by 2030. That expectation is 13 percent below the pre-COVID prediction of $135 billion by the end of the decade.
“This year’s forecast demonstrates the amazing resilience of the industry,” ARSA Vice President of Operations Brett Levanto said about the report. “ARSA’s 2019 report included a sensitivity analysis in which the ‘bottom of the barrel’ scenario limited air carrier maintenance revenues to $99.5 billion by 2029. It’s fair to say we discovered a lower bottom of a deeper barrel than imagined, yet revenues are on track to land billions ahead.”
Employment and workforce issues remain central to industry growth. In the United States, the number of maintenance personnel stands at nearly 280,000 people producing almost $50 billion in annual revenue. After the severe turbulence of 2020, the American market has returned to 90 percent of the projection included in ARSA’s 2020 market report released as the pandemic’s first impacts were felt. As reflected in data collected year over year through ARSA’s member survey, finding technically skilled workers remains a top concern of repair stations trying to keep pace with larger market recovery.
“There’s been a lot of fluctuation in the past two years, but one thing remains the same: repair stations continue to drive maintenance employment in the United States,” said ARSA Executive Vice President Christian Klein, noting that 66 percent of current American employment falls at part 145 certificated facilities. “As we’ve seen year over year, there are almost seven times more men and women working in our component shops and contract airframe or engine facilities than there are airline mechanics. Serving that community is going to be essential to aviation-wide growth. Every position waiting to be filled represents lost money for businesses and the delayed start (or continuation) of a rewarding career for skilled technicians.”
The value of each person in the industry was displayed in the report, which included its first assessment of economic output per employee. Confirming numbers calculated by ARSA for years using its own survey data, Oliver Wyman found that each individual working in maintenance accounts for more than $170,000 in annual revenue.
To learn more about the 2022 ARSA Annual Conference, visit arsa.org/conference.
Courtesy of ARSA